Duration: January 1, 2025 – December 31, 2027

Funded by: Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL)

Project Director: Prof. Dr. Sebastian Lakner

Researcher: Christian Maisch

Website:https://www.dbfz.de/mooreturn

Duration: January 1, 2025 – December 31, 2028

Funded by: European Union – Horizon Europe

Project Leader: Prof. Dr. Sebastian Lakner

Researcher: Ankita Shrestha

Brief description: Landscape elements (LE) such as hedges, ditches, trees, etc., have been shown to play a vital role in ecosystems and biodiversity. The intensification of agriculture through mechanization, drainage, and land consolidation has led to the systematic removal of LE and, consequently, to the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

The reintroduction of LE on 10% of intensively used land aims to achieve the goals of the EU Biodiversity Strategy by restoring natural habitats and thereby providing ecosystem services. Despite the proven value of LE, its reintroduction is viewed critically by farmers, for whom the associated effort, potential penalties, and expected production constraints represent costs, whereas the resulting benefits do not translate into tangible gains at the farm level. The challenge lies in developing appropriate policy instruments that enable the implementation of the reintroduction of LE in collaboration with key stakeholders. To this end, it is necessary for farmers to no longer view LE as a burden, but rather as a key element for nature-based, biodiversity-friendly, and climate-resilient agricultural production in Europe.

Duration: August 15, 2023 – August 14, 2028

Funded by: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety, and Consumer Protection (BMUV)

Project Leader: Prof. Dr. Sebastian Lakner

Brief Description: The intensification of agricultural landscapes is leading to progressive biodiversity loss and threatening important ecosystem services. Agri-environmental measures (AEMs) or the eco-schemes planned for the new funding period can be important tools for reconciling agricultural production and biodiversity. However, EAMs have so far been implemented mainly on individual and sometimes isolated fields, whereas the conservation of many species requires measures on a larger scale. An innovative approach is the cooperative implementation of measures at the landscape level involving multiple agricultural operations. Cooperation and participation can foster collective thinking and action and generate solution-oriented expertise. The KOOPERATIV project will develop, test, and implement a participatory and collaborative approach to implementing nature conservation measures—using flower strips as an example—at the landscape level in the Northeim district, taking into account ecological impacts and economic consequences. The aim is to improve the state of biodiversity and its ecosystem services as cost-effectively as possible and to permanently institutionalize the implementation of cooperative measures. The project will determine the optimal land coverage and spatial configuration of flower strips as well as biodiversity targets. The project is based on an integrative and interdisciplinary approach that encompasses the development of cooperative governance structures, the analysis of the effects of cooperative and landscape-scale flower strips on biodiversity and ecosystem services, and the economic evaluation of collaborative implementation. In doing so, the interactions and synergies between the areas of governance, ecology, and economics are considered holistically.

Duration: September 1, 2022 – August 31, 2026

Funded by: European Union – Horizon Europe

Project Leader: Prof. Dr. Sebastian Lakner

Researcher: Dr. Geesche Maria Dobers

Brief description: The goal of Agroecology-TRANSECT is to improve our understanding of a broad spectrum of agroecological farming methods so that they can be adopted more widely by European farmers.

TRANSECT stands for “Transdisciplinary Approaches to Systemic Economic, Ecological, and Climatic Changes.” We collaborate with 11 innovation centers in 10 countries that conduct trials on farms and examine their work, findings, successes, and failures to accelerate change by demonstrating real solutions to real problems in agriculture. The diversity of practices and farm types involved in the project reflects the depth and breadth of our ambitions.

Ultimately, the project is aligned with EU policy, particularly the Common Agricultural Policy, the Green Deal, and the Farm to Fork Strategy.

What do we mean by “agroecology”?

We have based our definition of the term “agroecology” on frameworks developed by previous projects, such as the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) 10 elements of agroecology, the 13 principles of agroecology developed by the High-Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition, and Gliessman’s five levels of agroecology.

The project is divided into seven “work packages” (WPs) that pursue the following objectives:

Conceptualizing agroecology for climate change mitigation, resilient agriculture, and the enhancement of biodiversity in the European context (WP2)

Unlocking the local potential of agroecology in the European context through science-society agreements (WP3 & 4)

Scaling up solutions through market and policy support (WP5 & 6)

Promoting knowledge exchange among stakeholders and communicating results to increase impact (WP7)

www.agroecology-transect.net

Subproject 3: Policy Analysis, Economic Drivers, and Discrete Choice Experiments

Duration: November 1, 2021 – April 30, 2025

Funded by: Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)

Project Leader: Prof. Dr. Sebastian Lakner

Researcher: Greta Sophie Theilen

Brief description: The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is a key policy instrument for shaping the agricultural landscape and promoting agriculture that contributes to the conservation of biodiversity. The current reform of the CAP presents an opportunity to further improve its positive elements, for example with regard to ecological management at the landscape and ecosystem levels. In addition, subsidies must be designed to effectively address implementation barriers faced by farmers. The CAP4GI project identifies ways to improve the ecological effectiveness of measures through a landscape approach, as well as their adaptability and transferability to various socio-economic contexts. To this end, CAP4GI engages in dialogue with farmers from Baden-Württemberg and Thuringia through participatory exchange platforms and direct outreach. The project analyzes the agricultural policy and socio-economic framework conditions in these two regions and conducts comparative Discreet Choice experiments and agent-based modeling are used to better understand regional contexts, economic drivers, and the impact of policy measures on farmers’ decisions. Simulations to assess biodiversity gains under various scenarios round out the research in CAP4GI. Close dialogue and recognition of needs, combined with illustrative simulation analyses to explore alternative scenarios, will help identify and overcome key barriers to strategic, adaptive policymaking and landscape planning. In this way, this integrative and systemic approach will support the development of a policy mix that enables farmers to fulfill their leadership role in environmental protection.

https://cap4gi.de/de

Duration: August 15, 2021 – August 14, 2023

Funded by: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety, and Consumer Protection (BMUV)

Project Director: Prof. Dr. Sebastian Lakner

Researcher: Menko Koch

Brief description: The intensification of agricultural landscapes is leading to progressive biodiversity loss and threatening important ecosystem services. Agri-environmental measures (AEMs) or the eco-schemes planned for the new funding period can serve as important tools for reconciling agricultural production with biodiversity. However, EAMs have so far been implemented mainly on individual and sometimes isolated fields, whereas the conservation of many species requires measures on a larger scale. An innovative approach is the cooperative implementation of measures at the landscape level involving multiple farms. Cooperation and participation can foster collective thinking and action and generate solution-oriented expertise. The KOOPERATIV project will develop, test, and implement a participatory and collaborative approach to implementing nature conservation measures—using flower strips as an example—at the landscape level in the Northeim district, taking into account ecological impacts and economic consequences. The aim is to improve the state of biodiversity and its ecosystem services as cost-effectively as possible and to permanently institutionalize the implementation of cooperative measures. This involves determining the optimal land coverage and spatial configuration of flower strips, as well as biodiversity targets. The project is based on an integrative and interdisciplinary approach that encompasses the development of cooperative governance structures, the analysis of the effects of cooperative and landscape-scale flower strips on biodiversity and ecosystem services, and the economic evaluation of their collaborative implementation. In doing so, the interactions and synergies between the fields of governance, ecology, and economics are considered holistically.

Collaborative Project “Central Coordination and Fact-Checking on Biodiversity”

Duration: April 1, 2021 – March 31, 2024

Funded by: Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)

Project Leader: Prof. Dr. Sebastian Lakner

Project Team: Dr. Sven Grüner and Pia Sommer

Brief description: The aim is to examine and document the indirect drivers through a literature review and data research. There are many individual studies on the indirect drivers of biodiversity loss that can be categorized under the academic disciplines of economics, agricultural economics, social sciences, political science, and law. However, there is a lack of a cross-disciplinary presentation that draws on the findings of the individual disciplines and provides a data-based overview of the indirect (socio-economic) drivers of biodiversity trends. To this end, the literature will be categorized into the three main drivers—economic, socio-economic, and legal determinants—which influence land-use decisions on farms and agricultural policy both individually and in combination. The presentation places particular emphasis on the design of agricultural and environmental policies, as many studies have identified, for example, the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU’s Natura 2000 strategy as key levers for shifting land use toward greater biodiversity protection (Leopoldina 2020, Lakner 2020). The data analysis will also examine the impact of long-term structural changes in agriculture and their influence on structural diversity and species occurrence in agricultural landscapes.

Duration: October 1, 2021 – April 30, 2022

Funded by: Federal Environment Agency

Project Leader: Prof. Dr. Sebastian Lakner

Project Team: Marie Meyer-Jürshof, Pia Sommer

Brief description: The project aims to assess the climate impact of the CAP 2023–27 based on the national strategic plan and the legal framework. The evaluation will be conducted based on the draft strategic plan, as well as national and European decisions and laws and regulations already submitted as of the present time. Based on this, the actual mitigation potential of the CAP elements will be estimated. To this end, a methodology will be developed in accordance with the projection report, the KSG, and the climate protection report.

For the analysis of fund allocation (roughly based on or building upon the OECD Rio Marker methodology), a method will be developed to estimate how much funding actually benefits climate protection.

Based on the methodological groundwork for fund allocation and GHG accounting, proposals will be derived for improving existing measures and, where appropriate, alternative measures that could be implemented in a climate-effective and cost-efficient manner during the new funding period.

Author: Dr. Carsten Croonenbroeck

Research in this field focuses on the microeconometric analysis of the price formation process in first-price sealed-bid auctions (FPSB). Such auctions are used in many sectors; for example, on energy exchanges (EPEX, European Power Exchange), energy volumes are traded using these auction mechanisms (in conjunction with tendering procedures). In the context of auction theory, the winning bids reflect the bidders’ valuations and constitute an extreme value statistic of these, since only the highest bid is ever observed. Through this, the unobserved distribution of valuations can be identified by assuming the Independent Private Value Paradigm (IPVP—each potential bidder knows only their own valuation of the good being traded) and, using game theory, focusing on the Bayes-Nash equilibrium of rational bidders. An estimation of the unknown distribution of valuations, and thus indirectly the maximum willingness to pay (WTP), can be performed nonparametrically, for example. Parametric approaches are also available. More recently, a super-consistent (i.e., with a convergence rate of n, rather than the usual √n) extreme-order GMM estimator has been developed; unfortunately, due to complex distribution-theoretic transformations, it is rarely practical to use. As part of this research project, a framework is being designed that performs the necessary transformations not analytically, but numerically in a pointwise consistent manner. The result will be a package for the R software that enables the direct application of the extreme-order GMM estimator and can also account for bidder characteristics and object characteristics as covariates.

Author: Dr. Carsten Croonenbroeck

Research in this area focuses on the empirical analysis of climate and environmental economic measures aimed at preventing damage. In cooperation with the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), a dataset from the Swiss Cantonal Building Insurance Companies is available for this purpose, which not only allows for the analysis of the relationships between the extent and frequency of natural hazards, broken down by type such as flood damage, fire, avalanche, or storm damage, and premiums as well as expenditures for preventive measures, but also examines the causal direction of effects.
The analytical methodology developed in this context can also be applied to other areas. For example, a collaboration with the Friedrich Loeffler Institute (Greifswald) is currently being initiated. There, research is being conducted on the economics of animal diseases: What economic and social costs does an epidemic such as BSE or bluetongue disease ultimately entail? In this sense, vaccinations against epidemics represent a preventive measure: vaccinations cost money initially, but thereby reduce the likelihood of damage occurring. Do measures of this kind have an effect? Are they cost-effective? Is the causal direction of effect the one assumed a priori?
In the future, the success of the 1991 Environmental Liability Act will be put to the test. An empirical study will examine whether the law has helped prevent or reduce damage since its introduction, or whether it has remained ineffective. In addition, the study will examine whether the law has had a lasting impact on the industrial insurance sector, given that damages of the type covered by the Environmental Liability Act can certainly be insured.

Author: Dr. Carsten Croonenbroeck

Reliable modeling and forecasting of electricity demand, generation, and prices are essential for energy trading, particularly for energy from fluctuating sources such as wind and solar. In the context of the energy transition, this not only creates new challenges for market participants but also new markets driven by new demands: market players such as energy producers or energy traders can purchase precise forecasts on the market. Service providers offer highly accurate point forecasts, but the methodology behind the creation of these forecasts is a trade secret. On the other hand, there is the immensely broad field of public-academic forecasting research, whose proposed methods are often difficult to implement in practice. To what extent the service providers’ methodology draws on academic research, or whether the methodology used takes a completely different path from public research, is largely unknown. Therefore, as a first step, a comparison will be made between fundamental forecasts from such a service provider’s sources and the state-of-the-art in research to measure and compare the performance of the methods. In the next step, the relationships between the fundamental forecasts and price formation will be analyzed. The aim is to conduct a detailed investigation into whether the accuracy of electricity price forecasts can be improved by incorporating probabilistic forecasts instead of point forecasts. This improvement could lead to more efficient markets and enhanced grid stability, particularly during periods of increasing wind and solar energy production. Finally, a comparison will be made between the quality of previous electricity price forecasts by the co-applicant on the one hand, and those derived from models in current scientific research on the other, particularly those based on new methods utilizing probabilistic fundamental forecasts. The economic efficiency impact of such forecasts is also examined here. In summary, this project forms the basis for an exchange of expertise between academic and in-house research, which rarely takes place publicly and from which both sides will benefit.